Growth - Haiti Observer Blog

IMF projects 4% Economic Growth for Haiti in 2015 but Financial and Domestic Destabilization could occur

Under a new initiative called the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), signed in 2014, Haiti has benefited from ECF assistance in sustaining economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a growth rate of 4% in 2015 for the country. But there has been reduced gross domestic product (GDP) at 2.7% in 2014, compared to 4.2% in 2013. Inflation is between 4% - 6%.

The Haitian government has not been able to reduce the high fiscal deficit, partially associated with Hurricane Sandy. Infrastructure improvements to stimulate growth strengthen the medium-term forecast, but is liable to negative risks.

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Haiti must be doing something right. The island comprising of Haiti and the Dominican Republic is expected to lead the entire Caribbean region economically in the next two years. Based on the latest update of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report, these two countries are expected to grow on an average between 3.75 percent for Haiti and 4.75 percent for the Dominican Republic.

Are we witnessing the shifting of power in the region?

Experts already predicted if this trend continues, in just a few years, the Island of Hispaniola will be the center of economic activities for the region.

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Good news for Haiti's economy surfaced this month, when the UN issued its United Nations Annual World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report. Haiti's economy is projected to grow at 4.5% in 2014, up 1% from 2013 figures (3.5%). Guyana is estimated to experience the same rate of economic growth, down 1% from 2013 figures (4.6%). Other CARICOM nations lag, with Trinidad and Tobago at 2.5% for 2104; Jamaica at 1.2%; and Barbados at 1%.

Generally in the Caribbean, economic growth is estimated at 3.3% for 2014, up from 2.4% in 2013.

The WESP report indicates an uptick in South American and Caribbean economies at 3.6% and 4.1% in the same order for 2014 and 2015.

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And the, if not good then, hopeful news keeps on coming. Information coming from the Haitian Institute of Statistics and Informatics (IHSI) along with the Ministry of Economy and Finance shows there has been a registered increase of 6.4% of the index of industrial production. Baldly put, the Haitian gross domestic product has risen.

Detailed in the Q4 2012 to 2013 publication for July through to September, the results also showed a 2.5% increase of the quarter before. The increase is also backed by data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is slightly up from the forecast made earlier in June of 2013 which put the growth percentage at only 3.4%.

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Latin America and Caribbean region are both now moving on a path of high economic growth and they are capable to manage risks of economies plummeting for sustaining stable financial economic environment. As per a recent statement of Alejandro Werner, who is the Director of the Western Hemisphere, Department of the International Monetary Fund, although the recovery process in the region is not very fast but has been observed to remain positive.

While attending a forum organized by Latin Trade Group, Alejandro Werner alerted concerned nations to remain prudent. Because there are many obstacles to retard the development-- high fuel prices, slowdown of Chinese economy, changes in U.S. policy which may have negative effect on the region's fragile economy. The countries should recognize good opportunities and reap benefits with right fiscal or monetary measures.

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Should Michel Martelly say: Yap Rablabal, map travail? If you look at the latest data coming from the International Monetary Fund, you would say that he is right.

based on the latest information from the International Monetary Fund, Haiti's gross domestic product grew in the 2013 fiscal year by almost 4 percent. This is preliminary information that will be verified after the entire year is over. This is better than expected as the International Monetary Fund projected the growth at 3.4 percent as late as last June of this year.

Si se konsa, anbin bagay yo pa pi mal!

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A country's economic growth is dependent on two factors namely, 'Entrepreneurship' and 'Government'. While the two are not really exclusive mutually, the two can lead to sustainable economic growth. Either the government must undertake the economic development or it must provide assistance to the private sector entrepreneurs to carry out certain developmental works in an environment that is targeted towards the welfare of the economy as a whole. When this happens, any economy shows rapid and sustained growth. For Haiti however, the situation was and is different.

The biggest obstacle for Haitian economic growth is the political system of the country. For years, the country was under military rule and dictatorship. However, after the end of dictatorship when the country selected the party led by Jean-Bertrand Aristide through its first free election, the people of Haiti felt a sense of relief that wasn't long lasting. The government turned out to be more like a dictator with government officials getting involved in trafficking of drug. The leaders of the government called themselves as the 'Anti-Liberals'.

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The past few years have been very promising for the island country of Haiti, despite the 7.0 magnitude earthquake that occurred about three years ago. It is actually one of the fastest growing economies in the region, thanks to the recent efforts of the Haitian government and the international community.

In a recent report published by the United Nation's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Haiti will be the leading and fastest-growing economy in the Caribbean in terms of GDP growth which is projected to increase by 6% by the year 2013. It was also supposed to be at the number one spot for 2012 with an initial estimate of 6% growth earlier in the year, but was decreased to a 2.5% growth by the ECLAC, as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), due to the bad effects of the major storms that hit the country this past year. Back in 2011, Haiti's GDP grew by 5.6%.

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